false negative covid tests.

Crushed

I just want to remind people that the rate of false NEGATIVE covid tests is depressingly high. False positives are quite rare but false negatives are common.

We had over 300,000 new cases reported yesterday Asymptomatic people are major spreaders adn false negative tests give a false sense of confidence that you re not a potential spreader.

This is EXACTLY why I have not seen DW since last March.  If a facility allows room visits simply based on a negative test they are playing russian roulette

 

Don't rely on a negative test result to see your family for Thanksgiving

By Holly Yan, CNN https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/thanksgiving-family-covid-testing-wellness/index.html

 

 False Negative Tests for SARS-CoV-2 Infection — Challenges and Implications.

Steven Woloshin, M.D.,

• Neeraj Patel, B.A.,
• and Aaron S. Kesselheim, M.D., J.D., M.P.H.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897

Donr

Now that the Holidays are over new cases will hopefully decrease.

Rescue mom

And those without symptoms....after me going so long not knowing anyone who had it (friends of friends maybe), more than a dozen cases have been Dx in my circle of friends and family in the last week. 

Not a single one thought they had covid. None had any symptoms except 3-4 thought a mild cold or allergy attack. In fact, a couple went to their doc b/c of “allergies.” It was covid. Others got tested b/c they took a parent, and then thought they’d get tested too. Or they went by a site with no line and thought what the heck...None set out to be tested, the tests were coincidental. 

None of them thought they had covid. So during the time they were most contagious (earlier)  they were just business as usual. At least they wore masks when out and about.

This must be part of that post-Christmas surge, the timing is right. Our cases are exploding, and tourists are flooding in because Florida is advertising “open for business.” Wish they’d ask senior residents’ opinion on that. (Actually they do ask, they just don’t pay any attention)

Most people I see do wear masks, because stores require it, but I don’t go to that many regardless

Crushed

Donr wrote:

Now that the Holidays are over new cases will hopefully decrease.

We have not yet had the peak of holiday cases.  Holidays have "super spreader" events that cause a chain reaction of infections in previously unexposed populations. It  takes several weeks for the infections to show up.  We are also not testing enough people so "reported cases" are unreliable indicator.  Hospitalizations are now up against capacity in many areas, so they cannot increase with infections.  Death reporting is slowed due to overload.  Daily average reported Covid deaths is now 3250.  Given that in 2019 the daily all cause death rate was 7800 that is a huge number of extra deaths for medical examiners to process. 

Yesterday's Jan. 9 death report (3235) was staggeringly high for a Saturday  the last non holiday Saturday was Dec 19 and the report was 2683.  That is a 21% increase in only 3 weeks. 

7 day averages show the same 21%  increase. 2687 to 3249 

Stay very safe

Funny but dumbest headline of the day goes to the Wall Street Journal

Coronavirus Live Updates: Reported New U.S. Cases Dip

Last Updated: Jan 10, 2021 at 3:59 am ET

 

 Folks It was SATURDAY Since the pandemic began reported cases almost always dip on the weekend.  It's like reporting stock prices unchanged on Saturday due to the market being closed.

Ed1937

Three of our kids are positive, two spouses positive, and one of our kids recovered from it. It's like wildfire.