No not an old thread. Stay safe

Crushed

With the enthusiasm about vaccination some folks (not here, out there) do not realize just how bad the numbers are BEFORE we hit the holiday surge.  The 7 day average infections on  Dec 20 were 220,000  21 days later on  Dec 10  7 day average deaths were 3304  That gives a KIFR of 1.5%  Our current average infections exceeds 250,000,  so we can project 3750 deaths  per day  at the end of the month.  Because  we are not testing enough KIFR has gone up from 1.3 to 1.5 (more deaths for the same number of known infections.)

We are trying to figure out how big the holiday surge is.  We will start to know in about a week