Stay safe , its worse than I thought

Crushed

I just did 21 day KIFR (known infection fatality ratio)

 numbers  Dec 4-25  averaged 212,989 infections per day

21 day lag Dec 25- Jan 15  3014 deaths per day          KIFR 1.4% 

(now this is an underestimate due to lags in death count.)

Our current 7 death count is 3384 per day

 21 day ago the 7 day infection count was 200,000   Which would only indicate 2800  deaths at 1.4%but instead we have 3384  .What has happened is that testing numbers have not kept up with infections .   So we are not detecting infections at the same rate and  7 day KIFR goes up to 1.7%  

7 day infection count ending January 9 is 250,000 a day
If KIFR is 1.4   Its 3500 deaths per day on  Jan  30
 If KIFR is 1.7   It's 4250 deaths per day on Jan 30

Recently testing has picked up to almost 2 million per day That would push the estimated deaths down.  But all the numbers are frightening  We are looking at 100,000 deaths in January as a minimum 

Stay safe-PLEASE