Covid 19 numbers still awful

Crushed

In the Euphoria over vaccines some folks do not realize just how persistent and nasty this disease really is. In the last 28 days we have had 26,017 deaths

If you go back 21 days and look at known infections over the prior 28 days it is 1,715,290

26,017/1,715,290 yields a Known infection fatality ratio (KIFR) of 1.5%

In the past 28 days we have had 1,773,017  new infections despite a hundred million people being vaccinated. 

The most recent 7 day KIFR is 1.35% that would be 855 deaths per day

If it goes back to 1.5  it would be about 950. 

To put it in perspective the USA   averages  52 homicides per day

David J

Crushed- Yes now is not the time to relax. We all need to maintain the masks and hand washing, as well as avoiding crowds and indoor gatherings. Our LOs don’t know how to protect themselves so we need to do it for them. Stay vigilant.

Michael Ellenbogen

And the good news I got my second shot on Friday and feeling well. I get my out of jail card in two in less then two weeks and back to normal I hope.

Lane Simonian

Yes, this is a good reminder to continue to wear masks, continue to social distance, and continue to wash hands.  The mindset is that there are so many people getting vaccines we are almost at the end of this pandemic.  But the vaccines are not 100 percent effective (although the risk of serious illness appears to be very low with "breakthrough" infections), the vaccines do not absolutely prevent you from infecting others, and we are still a considerable ways a way from herd immunity.

jfkoc

Michael, it is not back to normal. It's just I probably won't get critically ill or die.

Crushed

And some politicians continue to promote absolute screaming fantasies. The governor of Texas claimed that his states low rate indicated they were approaching "herd immunity".  Experts laughed at the claim.  Here are the latest 7 day numbers

Texas   Death rate 2.6 per million per day KIFR 1.9%

USA    Death rate 2.3 per million per day  KIFR 1.3%

The high KIFR  indicates that Texas may be keeping the case numbers low simply by not testing enough

My own state Maryland has 2.5 deaths per million per day and a KIFR of 1.6% We know we are in a public health emergency

Infections in the USA are trending upward although deaths have continued to decline, at least for now.  This may be due to a change in case mix as the age distribution of infected people trends downward. The KIFR for the working age population 18-65 is projected to be about 1.2%  Only a small fraction of this group has been vaccinated.

caberr

I know having the vaccine is making me feel a little more hope that things will be "normal" (whatever that will be)again. But we do need to continue with the social distancing, masks and hand washing. Covid is still here!

Michael Ellenbogen

Thanks for the reminder as I knew I still need to do that. But I can not tell you the relief I feel because I kept hearing that most of those dying had dementia. They should have ben one of the first on the list to get the vaccine but my state did not see it that way.  I just want to be able to go to a resturant and enjoy some time out. 

Quilting brings calm

The numbers in our state have been increasing.  I’m not sure why because we are not a spring break destination. However we did recently allow larger gatherings than before to begin happening.  Not huge events, but enough to have a larger wedding or funeral.  We are actually one of the most cautious states in terms of allowed events. 

There are still large numbers of people that think the vaccine is unsafe.  Of course those same people would line up to take it if a particular former politician encouraged it. Those same people still think it’s no worse than the flu.  Or that they are somehow protected from it. 

I’ve lost a few friends and at least one extended family member to it. I got my vaccine as soon as I was eligible. I can’t get everyone in my family to do so.  I’m still uncomfortable going to crowded places and I avoid it wherever possible. 

Crushed

In Maryland data reported Sunday  the one day covid positive rate was 28%

 Today's report is 21%  

 

 1) Gatherings are still unsafe, especially indoors
 2) Maskless folks should carry a bell and yell "plague"

3) I have not been indoors at a restaurant since March.  Why take the risk?

4) Anti vaxxers are described as essentially a "quasi religious" cult, therefore they cannot  be reached with reason and science   March 27, 2021 

 COVID-19, cults, and the anti-vax movement

  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00443-8/fulltext

The case fatality rate of Covid is between 1 and 2%  We already have almost 600,000 deaths. 

The adult population in the USA is about 200 million 

Michael Ellenbogen

Are you saying I should still not go to a restaurant after two weeks after the second shot?

Crushed

I don't go to places where the non-careful hang out.  I just had lunch Sunday with  DD#2

We were the only people on the restaurant patio The breeze was blowing and we are both vaccinated.  That is what I do 

zauberflote

Michael, I think it's more complicated than "wheeee! Restaurants!" Crushed's idea of only hanging out with vaccinated people is pretty much what I'm doing. The CDC says we can safely have small indoors mask-free gatherings of fully-vaccinated folks. Next week we are driving to a family house on Cape Cod, meeting two other fully-vaccinated family members for a "work weekend". We are also attending an exquisitely managed socially-distanced live Symphony concert this Saturday, and live church service on Sunday. I am going to start doing my own grocery shopping Saturday. Everybody is masked up, all the distancing is observed, grocery store aisles are one-way. But I have taken to wearing a mask when I go walking in the neighborhood, because the dominant covid variant is more contagious than the original. Haven't done that until now!

Katy sue

I live in Michigan, the #1 hot spot. 9k new cases end of last week. Yet we have parents who are complaining that their kids are not playing sports??? The biggest source of spread is gatherings before and after sports. I strongly feel the governor should shut down schools and all sports. These kids are not necessarily getting terribly sick, but are spreading exponentially. Now we seeing nursing homes and facilities hit...again. We also have variants all over now. IMHO some of these parents need to grow up and learn some coping skills and set better examples of how to deal with difficult circumstances. . A kid has a lifetime for sports, education and scholarships to Ivy League. I have no sympathy. Again, a lack of empathy and compassion towards fellow humans. 

The other thing that needs to happen is a rocket launch in the area of treatments for this disease. We have vaccines, we also have a huge number of unwilling participants. So why not improve the treatments (Regeneron) and make them extremely accesssible and affordable to those who cannot and /or will not get a vaccine.  As long as the disease has hosts, it will continue to spread., and worse, the variants will also be fueled. This is why our state is so bad. 

And it will spread to other states just as bad if we don’t start looking at other alternate plans while continuing to vaccinate. 

Need a Hail Mary.

feudman

Quilting brings calm wrote:

There are still large numbers of people that think the vaccine is unsafe.  Of course those same people would line up to take it if a particular former politician encouraged it. Those same people still think it’s no worse than the flu.  Or that they are somehow protected from it. 

"Anti-vaxxers" have been around long before this pandemic, and I think their reasons & mindsets vary, but for the purposes of this discussion, they fall into only two categories: Those with an open mind to scientific medical research, and the guidance it suggests, and the much larger group of those not willing to listen. 

While I don't doubt that Trump supporters are well represented in the latter group, they are but a percentage. For his part, the former POTUS was persuaded to film a PSA urging all Americans to do get vaccinated, but I dont know how often it was broadcast (I saw it only on a news program). 

Yet another factor on a worldwide scale is how willing we Americans are (as compared to other countries) to listen to requests from our government, characterized as "patriotic spirit." It hit an all-time high in the world war years, and was kept alive during the post war expansion period. JFK revived it during his inaugural address, but it seems to have been in decline since. 

Nowadays, we don't like being told what to do. During WWII, men and women actually volunteered to stay awake for long shifts in tiny glasstop structures to help spot enemy aircraft. In comparison, isnt wearing a mask "one small ask"?

storycrafter

I heard tomorrow our county here in CO is no longer going to "implement Covid19 rules." I'm not sure what this means. Everyone has been wearing masks and doing the six foot distancing in public places. I guess I'll soon find out what it means because I need to go to the bank and the grocery store. It seems premature to cancel basic precautions. I keep hearing of people/friends who are getting seriously ill with it. Maybe the odds of exposure are going down? Sure hope so.

Crushed

It is clear that "self centered stupid even if it hurts other people " has become the norm in parts of our society.  For the most part in the old days  self centered stupid people only hurt themselves. There were exceptions of course, e.g. Drunk drivers.  But the gospel of dont tell me what to do  is now pervasive. Interestingly,  those of us dealing with dementia are highly experienced in this area.

There were 75,000 new infections Thursday  despite 125 million being vaccinated

On Friday the total  was over 81,000

Crushed

Quick summary(all numbers are 7 day averages)

Deaths peaked in January at 3473 per day

Dropped to under 3000 per day  Feb 7

Dropped to under 2000 per day Feb 27

Dropped to under 1000 per day March 30

Since then the drop in deaths has "stalled"  despite massive vaccination

Death rate is  currently 740 per day.  KIFR is currently 1.2 probably reflecting a younger case mix of infections   current new infections are 70,000 per day  which would project to a daily death rate of  840 per day in three weeks at a KIFR of 1.2. 

We are not done with this disease

Callie in Boston

Vaccine hesitancy is huge in red states.  In WY it's over 30%.  I live in Mass where it is 5%, hence it's hard to get vaccine since the fed govt give sit out per population numbers.  I think they will have to stop this soon and offer states with higher vax rates more.

I got mine early because I volunteer at a vaccine clinic in my county.  I am retired, so it is easy enough for me - just one day on the weekend.  Our entire family (including kids) are set with the exception of 35 year old son who gets his first tomorrow.  I can't wait to get all of us together!

We will not be eating inside restaurants, or going places with large groups of people, and will happily continue to wear my mask.  

In Mass seems like all the cases are young people.  

Crushed

One of the reasons for the lower KIFR is the case mix of younger people getting infected. 

The death rate for infected young people may be as low as 1 in 250.  But there are about 58 million of them.  (20-35) So a galloping vaccine variant could kill over 100,000.