discussion on Delta variant

Crushed

Had a long talk with DD#1  (She has a PhD from Johns Hopkins in molecular biology and is in the FDA in a division adjacent to the covid folks.  While company stuff and regulatory decisions are totally secret  general discussion of science is very open.  I'll put this  way

I have 3 young school age grandchildren and they wear mask at all times around other children 
 She wanted to know that all my trips could be cancelled .   She urges maximum precautions.  

Even with Florida not reporting  we have 657 deaths reported today  in the USA

The CDC has a standard for very high risk travel destinations:
"Destinations that fall into the "very high" risk category have had more than 500 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days, according to CDC parameters.. that is 5000 per million

The whole USA is over 6000 per million and 

Florida is at 19,094 cases per million residents in the last 28 days

almost 4 times the CDC level for Very high risk area.
  

Texas   is almost 8000 cases per million Other states are just as bad.  This is ameasure of the ongoing risk of being out in public

  

loveskitties

The statistics are concerning for sure.

Just watched the end of local school board meeting regarding mask/no mask issue for students and employees for the soon to start year.

Could not believe it when the vote went to "encouraged but not required"!

Am sure that as the virus circulates into the school system they will have to go back to no in person education just because some folks don't want to mask up!

Can't understand the thought process, or lack there of.

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Updated:  That decision didn't last long as the governor finally stepped up to the plate, citing CDC guidance (which existed before original decision) stating that students and staff in k-12 schools must wear mask.  Thank goodness.

Iris L.

I wonder what is the case rate per 100,000 for influenza? 

Iris

loveskitties

According to data published on the CDC's website, U.S. clinical health labs and public health labs reported just 2,124 confirmed flu cases between Sept. 27, 2020 and May 15, 2021 (though the true number of people who contracted the flu was likely higher).

Iris L.

loveskitties wrote:

 just 2,124 confirmed flu cases between Sept. 27, 2020 and May 15, 2021 

That's amazing!

Iris

Stuck in the middle

We wore masks, washed our hands, and avoided crowds.  Not so amazing when you think of it.

Paris20

Everyone in my family, including my young-adult grandchildren and my 99 year old mother, are fully vaccinated. We live in five different states but we all wear masks indoors, and now outdoors again. That includes my husband, who is in the middle of Alzheimer’s. He has become so accustomed to popping on a mask that he often forgets to take it off and wears it until I remind him he can remove it. 

I do not understand why so many people, not those who are excused for medical reasons, continue to balk when told of precautions they should take to avoid Covid spread. We know the Delta variant is more contagious and potentially more deadly than the first-round-version of Covid. Is our country filled with selfish idiots? I think I know the answer.

Donr

We would not be going through this Delta phase if more people had received the vaccine months ago JMO.  I was talking to my physician at Cleveland Clinic yesterday and he mentioned that every patient in their hospital for Delta had not been vaccinated.

Crushed

  part of the problem is that states have found they can obfuscate covid data Since few in the media are equipped to do the math

So here are a few numbers and analysis all numbers are 7 day averages using NYT data

CASES  Reported Cases have gone from 10608 to 125 604  On August 12 .  12x increase
 However the situation is possibly much worse than that since the positivity rate cases/tests also skyrocketed   from 2% to 12% so we are finding  a smaller percentage of the cases

HOSPITALIZATIONS   JULY 5 17,000 - AUGUST 6 70,000   about 4x increase.  This number is complicated by length of stay Information we don't have

Deaths   reported July 5 186  august 12  616  3.3 x  Death reporting is  substantially delayed 

Bottom line is this is a roaring epidemic of the unvaccianted

My best estimate is that of each days reported case numbers  1.7 -2% will die over the next 28 days

The last time we had rising numbers in this range  Nov 9 116,000 28 dyas later we had over 2000 deaths per day