Going out on a limb.

Crushed

After making a lot of possibly bogus assumptions and unquestionably loose calculations the crude death rate of the omicron variant could be about .3% or about 1/5 of the delta variant . That assumes the same population age distribution

The bad news is give the incredible number of infections.

We could see 1500 deaths a day for quite some time

 

There are so many caveats to this number I would run out of space.

Most importantly we have very limited data on omicron and the unvaccinated
 
 Virtually everyone who has died to date are ordinary delta cases.
the omicron upsurge began after DEC 15 so we only have 21 days and it may have a different disease course We will have better data in a week or so

Current deaths are about 1300 per day
 
  

Quilting brings calm

Every week I’m hearing about another family I know being impacted by this.  A lot more then in 2020 and most of 2021.  A combination of the variant being more contagious, mitigation fatigue and stubborn unvaccinated.  Our hospitals are canceling surgeries  and our ERs are packed.  Yesterday I was told of an ER covid patient who was waiting for a bed with 40 people ahead of her. I don’t know how we are going to get out of this.

JoseyWales

I think we can no longer use positive cases being reported to tell us anything. In my state I think they're no longer offering rapid tests due to the fact they're just no longer available. Everyone I know who has tested positive (including DH and me) knew we were positive because of home tests. None of us had a test that would have been recorded in the state's numbers. 

I think it's like that for MANY people. At my school, parents are refusing to take tests because it requires their children to quarantine at home if they're positive. They also won't take their kids to test. They're beginning to lie about why the kids are home, too.

I'm worried about hospitalizations in the next month.

storycrafter

Thanks for sharing your thoughts about it, Crushed. I appreciate your caveats, and find your perspective helpful.

Everything I read does sound like it's phenomenally contagious. I'm not inclined to spread gossip and fear mongering; pardon me if that's what this is, but I heard someone say the other day they've read that some health professionals think everyone will get the Omicron variant.

In our state free test kits were offered to everyone, but the next week the state was out of tests and we're on a waiting list. I remember a few weeks ago seeing some home tests at the pharmacy and thinking I should get some just to have on hand; but I decided to wait, thinking the price would go down, or maybe they'd come out with ones that are more reliable. a couple weeks later and there are none at all to be had anywhere in our location. I hear and read that the lines for getting tested are very, very long. If I was ill I would not be able to manage the wait.

Yesterday my spouse let a couple contractors come into the house before I could answer the door. Neither of the youngish guys wore masks. I decided to simply keep my distance ... until suddenly found I had to work closely with them on some things. I'd left my mask at the other end of the house and it wasn't immediately available. A sort of fatigue suddenly raced through me and I felt a rush of annoyance and frustration; that irrational strong wish to control the uncontrollable. If I'd caught the men at the door I would have asked them to wear masks inside the house. Now it was too late and I was too fatigued and beleaguered to follow through. So now I bear an existential guilt <arrrgh> as I wait to see if I've avoided illness from these strangers in my house. ...So tired of this weirdness. Hope I eventually adjust to and accept reality.

Something I really appreciate is our local Alz support group (in-person) is going to switch back to Zoom. As nice as it's been to meet in person again, I'm glad to have the option to continue attending the meetings virtually for the winter and during this surge.

Thanks for being here everyone. I wish you well...

Crushed

DD#2 and her  Husband and both children are all positive  Youngest grandchild is disabled.  She may have gotten it from an unvaccinated health care worker but who can say 
DD#2 was relentlessly careful   She is an assistant state attorney General working with health care facilities.   DD#1 has a Phd in public health /microbiology   and 3 small boys
everyone is vaccinated and boostered to the max but the two  little ones are too young.
  

I cannot visit DW  they have cases in her facility 

I put a mask on and hide under the bed  

jfkoc

Contageous????  8 immediate family members (2 cities) fell like dominos in 6 days. 7 had boosters. I cloistered after the first one tested positive. Only one felt "bad".

Quilting brings calm

Illinois reports covid numbers to the public weekly on Friday.

 201,428 Cases in the last 7 days.  444 deaths in the last 7 days.  That would include New Years weekend. So it’s probably understated. 

There are two hospital systems in town.  Both are reporting record number of covid hospitalizations.  One is canceling elective procedures.  I saw a post from a person in pain awaiting a spinal fusion, which was cancelled at that hospital.  It’s been moved to the other hospital and will most likely get cancelled there. 

Crushed

Quilting brings calm wrote:

 201,428 Cases in the last 7 days.  444 deaths in the last 7 days.  That would include New Years weekend. So it’s probably understated. 

This is why the math  is tricky,  you have to look at infections at least 3 weeks ago  When omicron was not a factor  Illinois is averaging 77 deaths and on Dec 16 7200 infections

 That 1.1 % death rate is in the range for the younger unvaccinated population

now the 7 day average is up to 28,000  We don't know the distribution between Delta and omicron. lets assume my guess is right and its 4000 delta and 24,000 omicron.  4000 delta would produce about 44 deaths a day 24,000 at .3 % (second guess) would be about 72 a day 

so if they went to 116 dead in 3 weeks it would support my WAG  (wild a** guess)

Indiana is next door.  They have 83 dead per day in a much smaller population  they also have a 1.9% death rate which is high  so they probably dont do enough testing
and sure enough they do half the testing of Illinois and have a 50% higher positivity rating
 
so to compare the states you double the number of positives and double it again to equalize population   at the end of the analysis they have roughly similar problems

Callie in Boston

Both of my nephews got it (they are OK) one of their wives.  The other wife is boosted, she did not get it.  

It's in my dad's AL also.  

DH and I are fine though.  He invited one of the girls over for dinner Tuesday, wish he hadn't.  I will likely mask up.

Crushed

I looked at infection and death data on a 21 day lag for two consecutive 21 day periods ending  Jan 9 (all are 7 day averages from Worldometers
Infections Nov 28- deaths Dec 19
infections  Dec 19- Deaths Jan 9

  

Infections Nov 28 Deaths Dec 19 Infections Dec 19 Deaths Jan 9

Texas ...........2602 -----------63 -----5807 ----------91

California ,,,,4287 -----------64------ 7447 ----------76

New York ....6461------- ----56 ------16769 ---------113

Illinois .........4146 -----------55 -------9270 -----------69

Indiana .........2673 -----------59 -------4373 -----------76

Maryland .......874----------- 19------- 2483 ----------49

In every case an increase in infections is followed by a "roughly" proportionate increase in deaths .  What we don't know is how many are delta and how many are omicron
If its all DELTA there was a staggering increAse in DELTA while everyone was looking at OMICRON
 
If its OMICRON   its much nastier than we thought


  

Then there is FLORIDA

FLORIDA 1224---------- 17 --------6540 -------------2 !!!!!!!

Yes according to Florida infections quadrupled but deaths dropped to almost nothing This medical miracle is brought to you by Florida procedures that delay meaningful death numbers for almost a month



To understand the context
on Dec 19 USA infection 7 day average was  141,000

On Jan 10 USA  infections  7 day average was 737, 381   

 

Hospitalizations trail infections by about a week 

Hospitalizations have tripled  since November.
 Deaths have increased  50% already



  
 

Quilting brings calm

Crushed … thank you for the stats.  The comparisons were enlightening. 

I think that omicron is both highly contagious and more severe than we were told. I was told yesterday about 3 more people in our extended circle( friends  or friends of friends) that have covid. Today’s newspaper reported record hospitalizations in our area. We are only getting limited reports that omicron is in our area.  By that I mean the next county over reported it’s first case of omicron.  Since only sample variant identification testing is being done, it’s impossible to know the variant split.  A short post on our local news website stated that 1 in every 6 people in our area have it and are symptomatic.  My guess is they have postulated that theory based on the 15% test positivity rate. 

 I am fairly safe since my neck and back brace is keeping me at home.  My spouse is running all the errands and we haven’t had  anyone over except for our offspring at Christmas.  We are vaccinated,just waiting on the appropriate date for my spouse’s booster, 

Crushed

According to CDC

 Omicron poses a “substantially reduced risk” of serious illness compared to Delta — and is more than 90 percent less likely to kill those infected, according to a federally funded study.

more later

Cinsababe

My dad came to Christmas Eve getting over "a cold" and didn't tell anyone until halfway thru dinner. He along with the rest of us were all vaccined up and had already had "normal" covid last year.  3 days later we all had covid...most likely Omicron judging by the symptoms---runny noses, scratchy sore throats. Once we tested positive we found out that dad had indeed been exposed the week before.  All 8 of us had mild symptoms and felt fine in 5 days. Our local news here in SC keeps making the point that the deaths being reported aren't necessarily from current or even recent infections and reminding us that some people have been in the hospital for weeks and months.

Crushed

States all have both date of death and date of death report data.  For various political reasons many don't report both .  Maryland does report both and it's data is accurate and as up to date as possible

We know for example that there were already 65 confirmed deaths on January 11  and 50 on the 13th  (day of death reports) those numbers are dynamic and can increase with late reports. 
the 7 day average on reported deaths  hit 65 on the 15th which is an all time high

Real people are dying right now in Maryland from covid  in the largest numbers ever in the  pandemic

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Quilting brings calm

Our local newspaper explained the statistics I mentioned earlier… that 1 in 6 people in our area had covid and were asymptomatic.  Here’s the summary 

Hospital tests upcoming scheduled surgical patients for covid. This is after telling people to cancel their surgery if they have symptoms. 

November 2020- 1 in 16 of those specific tests came back positive 

January 2022 - 1 in 6 of those specific tests came back positive. 

The hospital has already begun canceling elective surgeries due to capacity. this seems like another good reason to do so.  

The article also mentioned that the PCR test results the hospital uses show slightly different results for the omicron variant so they can diagnose it without sending the sample in to the state. 

HSW

Hi Crushed, took DH to yearly today. He had a slight temp so they swabbed. He was positive. Our only contact was our son who came home last week from GA and his home test was negative.

Anyway I wanted to ask you if you have seen data on long haul covid regarding MCI or Alzheimer's.

Crushed

 

DENVER, JULY 29, 2021 — Much has been learned about SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the novel coronavirus, since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, questions remain about the long-term impact of the virus on our bodies and brains. New research reported at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference® (AAIC®) 2021, held virtually and in Denver found associations between COVID-19 and persistent cognitive deficits, including the acceleration of Alzheimer’s disease pathology and symptoms.

 

https://www.alz.org/aaic/releases_2021/covid-19-cognitive-impact.asp

storycrafter

A lot remains to be learned. Thanks for the link.

My younger sister had Covid about 1.25 yrs ago. She still struggles with long lasting symptoms that are new for her, such as fatigue, apathy, and brain fog. Granted those symptoms can have many origins, she still notices she has never regained her former energy or felt the same since. 

Crushed

Long covid can be awful

 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351