Real numbers and scary

Crushed

There were 85 Covid Deaths reported today in Maryland 
  That makes the 7 day average 60 deaths per day
What is totally scary is that we had a 7 day  average of 3360
infections on Dec 22

 So the known infection fatality ratio (KIFR) is 1.7%
which is DELTA at its worst
I ran Pennsylvania as a check and they are at 1.9% 
I  tried Montana as a very low population state  and they were 2.0%
 
More as I get it 

 

  

storycrafter

Thank you for that info, Crushed. I don't remember the exact figures, but I read an article yesterday that said the US is averaging 752,000 new cases per day. Is that possible? ... Well, just read a Denver news source says Colorado is averaging about 13,000 new cases per day. It boggles my brain. Where can one find KIFR information?

Crushed

I calculate KIFR from data on worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

it has a feature that gives you the 7 day average  

Indiana today    7 day average Deaths 105
Dec 22  (21 days ago)  4282 new infections  
105/ 4282 = 2.5%
 
The UK uses 28 days as a lag between infections and death.  I have found that 21 days gives adequate  and faster results.  7 day average eliminates the routine down effect of weekends. 
However multi day holidays like Christmas are an issue.   Some states are known to be either deliberately or negligently slow in reporting  Florid is the worst, often a month behind

KIFR is a planning not a scientific tool Its used to estimate the demand on the health care system Case fatality ratios are far more scientific but difficult to calculate in real time.
 KIFR is very sensitive to case mix  i.e. unvaccinated or older people getting infected
 
 KIFR right now for the entire USA is about 1%  but that is an underestimate because  of  states that delay death reports.

Deaths among Alzheimer's patients have run 2-3 times the KIFR  Tehy are older sicker and institutions.

Quilting brings calm

Todays covid reality.  Our state prison is not accepting transfers from county jails, unless the inmate will be released that day otherwise.  This is due to outbreaks of covid.   Our county sheriff just announced his deputies won’t be arresting suspects for non violent crimes.  Obviously it’s to keep the jail overcrowding down. 

Crushed - I google covid deaths in us.  Statistics from the New York Times comes up first in my list. I can see deaths/cases and 7 day averages for both. Both for the country and for individual states.   Illinois does not report numbers on weekends  and holidays.  

Story - todays 7 day new case average is 761,000