Covid Omicron and death rates

Crushed

One of the advantages/disadvantages of living in Maryland is that we are are very well educated and wealthy state that has a fairly honest government system and reasonable transparency.  So we get good current medically reliable data 

 YESTERDAY  WE HAD THE HIGHEST SEVEN DAY AVERAGE REPORTED DEATHS IN THE HISTORY OF THE PANDEMIC

 
 

Lane Simonian

The better news is that both cases and deaths appear to be dropping as a whole.  Yesterday there were around 550,000 cases as opposed to 850,000 cases a week ago and around 1,700 deaths as compared to 2,300 deaths a week ago.

Of course, there are lots of caveats, not all states report numbers every day (Iowa for instance almost never reports numbers) and cases reports are often staggered (almost always less at the beginning of the work week).  Still, those who projected that this would be the week that cases and deaths begin to drop appear to be correct.

Crushed

Sorry the data does not support your  claim
Monday 17 was a holiday which directly affects the numbers. 
As did Christmas and New Years.
Reported death numbers trail also actual deaths by at least a week
Deaths get "backfilled" into earlier days.  

After backfilling Deaths in December   were 1320 a day

Jan 7 7 day Average was 1533   Jan 14 average was 1871

We KNOW those totals are incomplete
  
 

Quilting brings calm

Googling covid deaths in us brings up data from the New York times 

As of midnight last night 

2990 deaths, seven day average of 1878. 

1, 178,403 new cases, 7 day average of 762,072. 

Yes, the daily number includes numbers from states that save their weekend and holiday numbers u til the next business day. But the 7 day average of deaths has gone up a lot in the past week. 

Omicron might be a less deadly ratio of deaths to cases, but we are having so many more cases that we are still losing 1800+ people a day and our hospitals are just as overwhelmed as ever. 

Lane Simonian

The trends are pointing in the right direction:

Omicron Is in Retreat

What’s next?

By David Leonhardt [New York Times]

Jan. 19, 2022, 6:23 a.m. ET

The latest Omicron developments continue to be encouraging. New Covid-19 cases are plummeting in a growing list of places. The percentage of cases causing severe illness is much lower than it was with the Delta variant. And vaccines — particularly after a booster shot — remain extremely effective in preventing hospitalization and death...

Since early last week, new cases in Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey and New York have fallen by more than 30 percent. They’re down by more than 10 percent in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. In California, cases may have peaked.

I am not arguing for anyone to let their guard down (and it does seem time for better masking).  Just that the more optimistic projections and interpretations regarding Omicron may very well be true.

Crushed

Still, the math suggests a lot more hospitalizations and deaths before Omicron is spent.

A combination of various models shared with the White House expects that 1.5 million Americans will be hospitalized and 191,000 will die from mid-December through mid-March, The Associated Press reports. "Taking into account the uncertainty in the models, U.S. deaths during the omicron wave could range from 58,000 to 305,000 

Omicron cases are expected to peak by early February, but as with floods, the real question for Omicron isn't "where's the high-water mark" bur rather, "When will the water recede?" Johns Hopkins University's Gabe Kelen tells The Washington Post. "We're at such high numbers that even as we're coming down, we're still overwhelmed."

"A lot of people are still going to die because of how transmissible Omicron has been," University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi tells AP. "It unfortunately is going to get worse before it gets better."https://theweek.com/omicron/1009140/omicron-may-be-close-to-peaking-in-the-us-but-theres-lots-of-death-to-come-models

Crushed

There are  something  around 60 homicides per day in the USA
 add in all the people killed by other drivers and killed in work events and fires and you get another 40 or so

So we tolerate 100 sudden deaths per day cause by other people  
 
Right now covid as an infectious disease  is killing 1800 per day 

Crushed

276,000 infections  7 day average 21 days ago

Jan 18 7 day average covid deaths 1839 

KIFR    1839/276,000=  .7%   fatality rate  (this is consistent with vaccianation status etc.

One day analysis 

21 days ago 485.000 cases  
  2,120  deaths reported today Jan 19  on Worldometers

.4%   death rate    (this is very close to what I got  in my early analysis 

Peak infections 804,000   Jan 15  21 days and .4%   = 3200 deaths 7 day average  for Feb 5

I  agree a lot of assumptions here  But this is not over

Final count of 2374 yesterday puts the one day KIFR figure at .5% If that ratio held up it would project 4000 deaths a day in February .  

Caveats  would fill a page  

 

Comrade

Crushed wrote:

One of the advantages/disadvantages of living in Maryland is that we are are very well educated and wealthy state that has a fairly honest government system and reasonable transparency.  So we get good current medically reliable data 

 YESTERDAY  WE HAD THE HIGHEST SEVEN DAY AVERAGE REPORTED DEATHS IN THE HISTORY OF THE PANDEMIC

 
 

How does this information relate to Alzheimers/dementia, etc. It worries me that it dilutes our focus from daily issues caregiving our families.

Quilting brings calm

Comrade 

Covid statistics affect caregivers/ patients. Those of us with loved ones in facilities spent the first 12 months of this epidemic cut off from those loved ones. The isolation expedited their progress down the dementia path.  The numbers are bad enough that many facilities are cutting off visitation again.  We need to know the numbers to be prepared 

Those of us with loved ones with dementia at home were unable to take them out and about that year increasing their isolation, we were unable to get out and about ourselves, increasing our time with them, increasing our caregiver frustrations.  We were unable to get in home help. The statistics  imply that that time is coming again.. Knowing the numbers helps us prepare. 

Covid has a detrimental effect on dementia. Brain fog especially. Covid scares many of us abs a post like this one allows us to discuss it. 

In terms of this forum, we only get about 10  or less posts a day - about anything. It’s not a hopping place.  An off topic post can be ignored by anyone choosing to do so.   The ‘ front porch’ posts are up to number 163, and each are several pages - because the people here crave connections with each other to relieve their isolation and  loneliness. 

There is a Facebook dementia group I’m a member of. It’s called Dementia Through Daughters Eyes, but it’s for any friend or family member of a dementia patient.  That’s a very busy group totally dedicated to dementia.   I prefer this forum.  

Crushed

Comrade wrote:

How does this information relate to Alzheimers/dementia, etc. It worries me that it dilutes our focus from daily issues caregiving our families.

Covid has KILLED many Alzheimer's patients over the past year.  
I assume that something that is killing our loved ones is of interest 
My wife's only Aunt, a dementia patient died of covid
  

Dementia Is Deadliest Underlying Condition for COVID-19 Patients on Medicare

Nearly 1 in 3 beneficiaries with the brain disorder died from the coronavirus, HHS report shows
 
 

https://www.aarp.org/health/dementia/info-2021/coronavirus-impact-on-dementia-patients.html

harshedbuzz

Comrade wrote:

How does this information relate to Alzheimers/dementia, etc. It worries me that it dilutes our focus from daily issues caregiving our families.

For many, COVID has had a huge impact on choices we make as caregivers.

Some families have delayed admission to a MCF or brought their LO home because of the special health risks associated with dementia in the context of dementia. Others have done this because of policies that prohibit or restrict access to our LOs in care to prevent infection within the care community. 

For those who had LOs in care facilities, often the quality of life took a downturn as communal meals and activities were canceled and staff shortages became common. Many caregivers report a hastening of the disease process with their LO in isolation and without social stimulation.

Other caregivers have had to pivot to 24/7 care solo because it wasn't safe to bring in professional care or because there were no available. A number of folks here have had their LO contract the virus and several have been doing the work of caregiving while infected themselves.

Since the spring of 2020- my best friend's brother who had VD after a stroke died in care, my husband's grad school boss who had Alzheimer's died in a MCF, my husband's cousin who had Parkinson's with dementia died in April 2020 and was followed by his sister with VD in the fall of that year, the mother of another friend died in October of this year.