Scary covid numbers

Crushed

Scary numbers

 I use 7 day averages with a 21 day lag to calculate

KIFR (Known Infection Fatality Ratio)

 

 Here is the 7 day average data for the last 14 days for deaths.

 

Deaths week ending Feb 22 2041

Cases week ending Feb 1 148, 419 (21 day lag)

KIFR 1.375%

 

 Deaths week ending March 1 1996

Cases week ending February 8 112655

KIFR 1.771%

 

 That is a 28% increase in the KIFR in one week

 

 What makes it worse is the known lag in death reporting is greatest for the most recent week. So the numbers are worse than they appear.

 So either the virus is getting more virulent or we are under testing the folks most likely to die.

Since we are vaccinating Nursing homes and hospital numbers also dropped a possible explanation is older people dying at home without hospital care. That is a scenario of special concern to  dementia patients and caretakers.

 

Rick4407

The recently identified P1 variant is particularly scary!