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latest covid numbers and please no magic dog turds

Crushed
Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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I ran the Covid numbers from yesterday
7 day average deaths 277
7 day average cases from 21 days before 15,393
Known infection Fatality Ratio 1.8 %
Average covid Infections last 7 days 56.689
assuming all factors stay the same
projected average deaths in 21 days 1000+ per day
 
 
These people are already infected
 
Virtually al the deaths are among the unvaccinated
If you know anyone who says "I don't want to be a vaccine guinea pig" 
tell them the anti- vaxxer  guinea pigs are dying like flies. 
And please no suggestion of magic dog turds that cure covid.

 

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  • Lane Simonian
    Lane Simonian Member Posts: 348
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    If followed, the new mask recommendations and mandates should help.  It appears now that no amount of cajoling and vaccine requirements however well-intentioned they are will get the vaccination rates up to where they need to be.  Herd immunity seems very unlikely now as well since those vaccinated can still spread the virus. 

    I still feel that for those who are immunocompromised or for those who have autoimmune conditions, the vaccine makers and the FDA dropped the ball.  There still is no efficacy or safety figures for either group.  The vaccines were supposed to be the magic bullet but may be so many eggs should not have been put into one basket (although the approval of different vaccines based on somewhat different approaches may help especially for the two groups mentioned above).

  • Crushed
    Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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    The scientists developed these vaccines at an incredible rate.  It was brilliant science.   But he key to protection of the immuno compromized is a low level of endemic infection in the community, not a vaccine.  That requires a much higher level of vaccination.  

    No one anticipated the aggressive sociopathic response to public health requirements.

  • BethL
    BethL Member Posts: 838
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    A friend's grandson is under treatment for leukemia. He's in remission but still has chemo periodically, for a total of 3 years. He is 17 years old. He had two Moderna vaccines, and he has NO antibodies. The chemotherapy had an effect, it appears, on his ability for a good antibody response.
  • IWBH1990
    IWBH1990 Member Posts: 20
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     I just came home from a funeral this morning of an ex-coworker (he did not die of Covid). At one time there was about 50 people in the room at the funeral home. Of the 50 people in the room, I was the only one in the room with a mask on (and I am vaccinated). The funeral was in Madison, WI which has a high vaccination rate, but even if the adult vaccination rate was 90% (which it is not) that would mean that there was likely at least 5 unvaccinated people in the room with many shaking hands, hugging, and getting so close to others keeping voices low to not disturb others. I don’t get it. I recently placed my DW in a Memory Care Facility where I have to wear a mask visiting until Covid goes away, and it won’t go away until everyone gets vaccinated or builds up immunity through sickness. It makes me so angry. 

     Dave 

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  • Crushed
    Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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    Border crossers are a drop in the proverbial bucket

     

    Customs and Border Protection confirmed that 135 detainees at the Rio Grande Valley crossing point have tested positive for COVID-19 in the first two weeks of July alone.

    BORDER AUTHORITIES ENCOUNTERED 190,000 PEOPLE ILLEGALLY CROSSING BORDER IN JUNE, HIGHEST IN 21 YEARS

    The cases in the Rio Grande Valley sector detention facilities now account for 60% of all detainees confirmed to have COVID-19 and are under CBP’s care, Fox News reported Tuesday. The striking figure regarding the RGV sector, one of the busiest sections of the border through which thousands of people cross daily, comes as the Biden administration contends with a worsening crisis at the southern border.


    So 10 cases per day accounts for 60%  of CBP  cases.  

    That is trivial in a 50,000 per day case spread 

    Final numbers from July 28
     

    84,534  Cases
     483   dead

    If the KIFR stays constant at 1.8  that would be 1500  deaths in 3 weeks  

    the lowest KIFR we had this year was 1.2 That would be a thousand deaths from teh infection today 
    7 day numbers would be lower .

    67,000 x 1.8 =  1200 deaths per day  

     
     

      

  • M1
    M1 Member Posts: 6,715
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    My oldest granddaughter is starting kindergarten and her district has no mask mandate. My daughter and I both are just sick about it. There's no way we can keep one on her if the other kids dont, no five year old has that kind of self discipline (obviouly many adults dont either)
  • Ed1937
    Ed1937 Member Posts: 5,084
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    We have a 6.7 positivity rate. Our 15 year old g-daughter was scheduled to be vaccinated tomorrow. Tested positive today.
  • Crushed
    Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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    The average number of new infections has just gone over 70,000 per day.  

    The last time there was a rising curve of  new infections that went over 70,000 was October 25.  21 days later on Nov 15 deaths hit an average  1292 deaths 
     
    Thousands of un-vaccinated people are going to die in the next few weeks
    totally preventable deaths 
  • Lane Simonian
    Lane Simonian Member Posts: 348
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    Very sorry to hear about your granddaughter, Ed.  I hope that she does all right.
  • Buggsroo
    Buggsroo Member Posts: 573
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    Here in Canada the vaccination rates have slowed. Sadly a lot of people who work in health care have opted not to get the vaccine and this infuriates me. There are a lot of people who have held out and they don’t socially distance. We have been through three lockdowns, not great.

    I got both vaccines and so did my husband, I insisted. Luckily he doesn’t go out and sticks close to home. 

    There is a school across the street from us. School has been online for older children but a daycare does operate there. The adults wear masks, the small children don’t, however, all the kids I have seen around do wear masks. 

    This virus has been hell.

  • Crushed
    Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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    Well there are different levels of hell
    Today
    Canada    38 million people and 5 deaths.    .13 Deaths per million per day

    Florida     21.5 million and 56 Deaths          2.6 deaths per million per day

    Florida with its staunch anti mask anti vaccination anti science "leadership"  is killing people at 20 times the rate of Canada. I'd keep the border closed

  • Callie in Boston
    Callie in Boston Member Posts: 6
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    So my son, 34, had that super rare myocarditis reaction to Pfizer (happens with Moderna too) after the second shot.  He is OK now, but was hospitalized for a bit, and he is still finishing meds and no exercise for a 3 month period.  No more chest pain no damage shown on mri.

    He clearly cannot take an mRNA booster if and when needed, but the cardiologist treating him just doesn't know what to do.  They were not even sure how to treat it (diff causes of myocarditis call for diff methods of treatment) This practice (near Boston) has several patients like him.  

    I would appreciate it if anyone happens to see anything on this about how to  handle going forward, posting it somewhere.  I know we have a lot of great researchers here!  Israel seems to be the furthest ahead on studying this because it showed up there first. 

    And yes, he says he would do it again, as the chance of heart damage from covid is higher than this rare percentage that developed this issue. But once you have myocarditis, your chance of getting it again is def increased.

    Thanks! 

  • Lane Simonian
    Lane Simonian Member Posts: 348
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    I am sorry to hear that your son developed myocarditis after receiving his second Pfizer shot.  I hope that he continues to recover well and has no further problems.

    All vaccines currently work by using spike proteins to develop immune responses.  The spike protein from the coronavirus increases the risk for autoimmune responses more than the vaccines because of the presence of more spike proteins. I am awaiting more results from the Novavax vaccine (not yet approved) as it utilizes fewer spike proteins than the other vaccines and may thus produce fewer autoimmune responses.  I am not sure though if the boster from Novavax would be safe for individuals who have already had these responses.

    I will tread lightly here given the title of this thread, but many poorly treated and untreated diseases are the results of oxidation and nitration.  Myocarditis is likely no exception:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2248324/ (sectionVI, subsection A-4)

    A variety of herbs contain anti-oxidant, anti-nitration, and anti-inflammatory compounds, but whether any of them can be used to prevent or treat myocarditis in the future is an open question.  Here is a fairly comprehensive discussion combining a variety of approaches.

    https://draxe.com/health/myocarditis/


  • Ed1937
    Ed1937 Member Posts: 5,084
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    Lane Simonian wrote:
    Very sorry to hear about your granddaughter, Ed.  I hope that she does all right.

    Thank you, Lane. Fingers crossed.


  • Crushed
    Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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    The way we protect those who cant be vaccinated is by vaccinating everyone around them. All that requires is that people be civilized and care about one another. I always recall the people in the World trade center who slowed their own evacuation to help "the halt the lame and the blind"  get out  A person I know was carried down in a wheel chair by relays of strong young people while two elderly ladies held flashlights and made sure the steps were clear.  there was never a shortage of volunteers.

    The failure to vaccinate is coming back with a vengeance.   Death toll today at 9:30 is 419 But the case count is over 99,000

  • Crushed
    Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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    Some in Missouri Seek Covid-19 Shots in Secret, Doctor Says

    As cases surge, a doctor says that some people are pleading for discretion when they receive the vaccine, worried about what their friends and families will think.


    July 30, 2021

    Even as the more contagious Delta variant drives a surge in infections, the Covid-19 vaccination effort has become so polarized in Missouri that some people are trying to get shots in secret to avoid conflicts with friends and relatives, a doctor there said.

    In a video circulated by her employer, Dr. Priscilla A. Frase, a hospitalist and the chief medical information officer at Ozarks Healthcare in West Plains, Mo., said this month that several people had pleaded for anonymity when they came in to be vaccinated, and that some appeared to have made an effort to disguise themselves.

    “I work closely with our pharmacists who are leading our vaccine efforts through our organization,” she said, “and one of them told me the other day that they had several people come in to get vaccinated who have tried to sort of disguise their appearance and even went so far as to say, ‘Please, please please, don’t let anyone know that I got this vaccine.’”

    It was not clear how many people had tried to alter their appearance to avoid recognition, or how they had done so. Dr. Frase, who wore a mask in the video, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Some people, she said in the video, were “very concerned about how their people that they love, within their family and within their friendship circles and their work circles, are going to react if they found out that they got the vaccine.”

    NYT today  
  • storycrafter
    storycrafter Member Posts: 273
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    I don't know the correct terminology for my questions, but I'm curious how the stats now relate to what they were before. For example, I'm wondering about how much risk I take going to the grocery store today versus a year ago, or six months ago. Or, if I dare to attend an indoor meeting with a small group, or several people, how much safer is it than a year ago, six months ago, or even a month ago?

    I'm wondering how the current figures relate to past months. The rapid increase of the variant cases is alarming and I feel a need to understand the relative difference so I can determine how much risk I'm willing to take with my immune-compromised body.

    A few months ago when I saw my doctor and asked about it after being fully immunized, he said to see the vaccine as a get-out-of-jail card, and urged me to get out again, attend church again, be with people again; just not huge crowds indoors. I thought, Great!

    But when it came right down to it, to my surprise I discovered I wasn't comfortable in a larger group yet. I astonished myself when I planned to attend a dear old friend's memorial service. I looked forward to singing in the choir for her again and sharing about her life with her family, etc. I knew there would be a large crowd and many, many different families represented; but many would also be vaccinated in that population.

    Then I thought about teen-agers and children that would be there too. And how church choirs were some of the earliest heavy spreaders. At the last minute I chickened out and, with great reluctance, embarrassment, and conflicting feelings, had to excuse myself from participating. Thus I have become unreliable when I'm a person who highly values responsibility and follow-through on what I tell people I'll do. I reversed my own statement of commitment at the last minute.

    Some friends are very supportive and understanding of my hesitation; a nurse friend says - it's okay, do only what you're ready for, it's an individual decision. Other friends exude a sense of bafflement at my reluctance to meet even when I'm fully immunized. A couple of them have chosen not to be vaccinated. I have always had a philosophy of "live and let live," and let it go. Very sadly a couple of them have bought into mis-information/dis-information. I will meet with some when it's outside and even inside now that it's summer and if a small group.

    (By the way, it's very sad to hear of the intolerance and vilification that someone mentioned above regarding getting the vaccine. I am sorry to hear that people who want it are being oppressed; it sounds tragic to me because it's really up to each person and they have the universal right to be accepted without repercussion.)

    Sorry, getting side-tracked there. I meant to only give an example of my concerns to clarify my question that I'm not quite sure what it even is, lol; something about how to view the information in relation to previous stats so I can make an educated decision how much I go out and do again. Yes, stats are up, but how significant to my daily life? I don't want to deprive myself, more than is prudent, of important social connections.

    I read that our county in CO has one of the higher rates of delta variant infection in the state over the past couple weeks. I'm not sure how to interpret this for my own activity. Because something has risen 200 percent over the previous week, is it once again as risky as a year ago? I don't know what that 200 percent is in relation to and what its true implications are. And how does the local situation relate to the rest of the region/country? Maybe it's not much in the grand scheme? Our state is not as high as others.

    Before the pandemic hit, when I'd read that flu cases were up I didn't curtail going to the store, etc. (I caught a summer case of influenza once as an adult many years ago, in my 30's, and was extremely ill for a while from its side effects. When I got well I continued to go out and about as much as ever and haven't had it since. I do now get the flu shot every year, though.). I'm needing more info to make a wise decision about where to go and when. Lots of friends/acquaintances are now going out with impunity and I sometimes feel silly staying home and out of the fray.

    Holi moli, I've written a book. Forgive me going on and on. Thinking out loud (obsessing out loud), trying to sort it out in writing I suppose. I don't know that I've explained my question/s very well, but maybe you get the gist of what I'm trying to say? Is there a term/s for this type of information?

    If you waded through this far, you're a saint, and I thank you! I feel better for having gotten some of the confusion out of my head. It's still a very strange world we're in and we're not through it yet. I'm not anyway. Thank you for being here, fellow "travelers."

  • Ed1937
    Ed1937 Member Posts: 5,084
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    Storycrafter, your questions come through loud and clear. And they are important questions. But I have no answers. Only more questions.

    Some of our own kids don't believe in the vaccine. But it looks like I've convinced two of them to get the shots.  One is scheduled for Monday. Not sure about the other. Three others have already had both shots.

  • Quilting brings calm
    Quilting brings calm Member Posts: 2,404
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    Storycrafter 

     https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+daily+deaths&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari

    Try the info above ( which you should also be able to get to by typing  in Covid daily deaths us

    There is a series of historical graphs that you can manipulate  to see deaths or cases in the USA or a particular state on any give  date.  So you can compare numbers from last summer and now. 

    Your state department of health probably has an entire statistical section on Covid, ours does, including positivity rates( cases to tests) and vaccination rates to help you assess risk. 

  • Stuck in the middle
    Stuck in the middle Member Posts: 1,167
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    I am not one bit surprised to hear that about West Plains.  Nice people, most of them, but not ready for the 21st century.  Nor do they much want to be.  They have only grudgingly accepted the 20th.

    I drove 100 miles to West Plains to get my first covid shot at the Ozarks Medical Center on Porter Waggoner Boulevard.  I had the impression that a lot of us were not from around there.

  • Crushed
    Crushed Member Posts: 1,442
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    Story crafter Best I can tell you

    1) with the vaccines you are very unlikely to die of covid even if you catch it

    2) you can still be infected with it

    3) you can transmit it to unvaccinated children or adults 

    4)  Covid numbers are skyrocketing among unvaccinated people  Some of those people may be catching it from vaccinated people with asymptomatic infections.

    5)  The rates among unvaccianted people are staggering  Florida has more infections than it ever had and half the population is vaccinated 

     6) The Known infection fatality ration  is running about 1.7% after 21 days despite the fact that most of the old sick people are vaccinated.  My  work last year told me that the death rate among working age males was likely 1.4%    This number is applicable to unvaccinated people  

  • Mint
    Mint Member Posts: 2,673
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    Story crafter I am a lot like you.  Am fully vaccinated but have continued to try and distance, avoid large crowds and wear a KF94 mask.  KF 94 is South Korean version of N95.  This is what I am comfortable with at this time. Know many out there have risky, lack of common sense behavior so will continue to do this as long as I feel the need.
  • M1
    M1 Member Posts: 6,715
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    Storycrafter, I would only add that while the current numbers-that is, the current prevalence of infection has not yet reached last winter's levels, what is WORSE this time around is the extreme contagiousness of the delta strain. So you are absolutely right to be hesitant. We personally are back to limiting all contacts and masking for everything.  Even with vaccination, you have to consider other factors, such as age and immunocompromise, so you don't know how robust your personal response to the vaccine was. These booster trials are crucial, I suspect israel is on the right track there. But adding a third shot when most of the world has had none also shows how far we are from true control of this pandemic.
  • Loralli23
    Loralli23 Member Posts: 4
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    The scientists developed these vaccines at an incredible rate.
  • Paris20
    Paris20 Member Posts: 502
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    My son-in-law sadly lost his cousin to ALS last week. The family announced that anyone who has not been vaccinated cannot attend the funeral. My son-in-law’s sister and her husband are part of the cult of personality that has created the horde of the unvaccinated. The family told them NOT to come to the funeral.

    I think what the family did was right. How horrible would it be to attend the funeral of a young man and leave with Covid? There will be many people in attendance. I assume the honors system will be in effect…maybe not. I’ll find out when I speak to my daughter. I read that people are becoming angry at those who spew incorrect information and pseudoscience to excuse themselves from being vaccinated. Maybe the anger they’re bringing out in some of us will encourage the unvaccinated to get their shots. I hope so.

  • Mint
    Mint Member Posts: 2,673
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    Paris I am so sorry for your families loss.  ALS is such a devastating disease.  It was a disease that always broke my heart when I cared for them.
  • Callie in Boston
    Callie in Boston Member Posts: 6
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    Lane Simonian wrote:

    All vaccines currently work by using spike proteins to develop immune responses.  The spike protein from the coronavirus increases the risk for autoimmune responses more than the vaccines because of the presence of more spike proteins. I am awaiting more results from the Novavax vaccine (not yet approved) as it utilizes fewer spike proteins than the other vaccines and may thus produce fewer autoimmune responses.  I am not sure though if the boster from Novavax would be safe for individuals who have already had these responses.

    Even J&J?  Because to my knowledge, there is no myocarditis associated with this non-mRNA vaccine. I believe the consensus is that this rare side affect is related only to mRNA vaccines.

    But thanks.  He is fine, normally super healthy.  I will keep scanning researchers twitter accounts to find updates on this issue.

  • Lane Simonian
    Lane Simonian Member Posts: 348
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    A definitive link has not been made between non-mRNA vaccines and myocarditis.  

    https://newsroom.heart.org/news/symptoms-resolved-in-7-patients-with-myocarditis-like-illness-after-covid-19-vaccination

    The clotting issues are a problem with the mRNA vaccines as well as the non-mRNA vaccines even though Pfizer and Moderna (and the CDC for that matter) have not acknowledged such.

    It sounds like your son is doing fine.  Best wishes to him.

  • Lane Simonian
    Lane Simonian Member Posts: 348
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    I hope that your granddaughter is doing all right, too, Ed.  I will wish for the best.

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