latest covid numbers and please no magic dog turds

storycrafter

Thank you, Crushed, for your comments in response to my post. Thank you, everyone for your helpful reflections.

Thanks, Quilting, for that site with the helpful graph.

Crushed

New national numbers

Tues August 3 516  reported deaths  104,758  reported infections
that is the highest number of daily infections seen since Feb 11
 March 4   21 days later reported 2000 deaths.

Note Tuesday is often the high death report day since it "picks up" previously unreported weekend deaths but with summer staffing Wednesday is also a high day.    
 Known infection fatality ratio 1.6    Based on August 2 numbers of  354/22505 cases on July 12 (both 7 day averages)    Seven day average cases yesterday 86710.  Multiply by 1.6 % and you get an average about 1300 daily deaths in 21 days 

Last time we were at this number of infections was February 16 and on March 8 we were averaging  1600 deaths per day.  

Average age of patients is now younger so the death rate should be lower. But the delta variant may be more virulent.  Over 97% of deaths continue to be among the unvaccinated.   Since it takes 5 weeks for vaccination to confer immunity  Deaths over the next 3 weeks are reasonably certain using my approach but after that its anyone's guess.  There are a hundred million unvaccinated adults out there in the USA.   

  
Worth mentioning that Gov Di Santis of Florida is simply telling bald faced Lies  
“Even among a lot of positive tests, you are seeing much less mortality that you did year-over-year,” DeSantis said at a Miami-area press conference. “Would I rather have 5,000 cases among 20-year-olds or 500 cases among seniors? I would rather have the younger.”

The 21 day lag between infection and death is of course what allows him to say such stupid things.  I ran the numbers using the same  28 day period  and 21 day lag in 2020 and 2021

Deaths July 6 to August 3 Infections June 22 to July 13  

2020         3969  deaths       183,369   infections      KIFR   2.2%

2021         1161   deaths        60,405    infections      KIFR  1.9%

Both  round to 2%

Florida has had 297,180 infections  over the past  28 days Using 1.9%  That projects to a death total of 5646 July 27-Aug 24    427 died in the last 7 days  We can project 5000 deaths over the next 21 days at 1.9% 

Florida's overall KIFR  All deaths to August 3  over all infections to July13  is 1.6%
 

jfkoc

Monday I was asked if masks were required by our art museum. When I replied yes she said that she was disappointed not to see our current exhibit. I told her to just wear a mask for and hour. She replied that she would not because they were unhealthy!!!

No, she is not vaccinated either. 

Lorita

Judith, exactly the mentality that's keeping the pandemic going.  If something doesn't happen to change their minds, we'll never get through this.  Why would a mask being worn for an hour be unhealthy?  Unbelievable. I know you were wearing yours.

Stuck in the middle

All my life, people with asthma and other reactive respiratory disorders have worn masks when the pollen/smoke/mold spore/whatever count was high.  Now they can't wear masks because they have respiratory disorders.  ???

chrisp1653

It occurs to me that as an adamant non-smoker, nothing in my arsenal of facts, figures, or statistics has ever convinced a smoker to quit  ( except for my parents, who went cold turkey for the love of this boy who was frightened to death that one day he would come home and find them dead . )

It seems to be about the same for the anti- vaxers. No amount of infected, dying, or dead will convince them that the vaccines are safer than not being vaccinated.

Jo C.

Judith; that must have felt a bit strange; ignorance and fear seems to know no bounds.  What really is upsetting are those who blatantly state they are using false vaccination certificates to get into bars, restaurants, gyms, and other settings that demand proof of vaccine for entrance in order to protect their staff and customers.  Those morally bankrupt people really, really need to be given HUGE fines when and if they are discovered. 

Two U.S. citizens recently went across the border into Canada with false vaccination cards and they were fined $16,000 each for their crime.   We do not have a national registry with national ID cards that cannot be duplicated nor criminalization of such behavior in the interest of public health.   That has not been put into play and will probably not be - polical football.   We must depend on each individual's goodwill and conscience to comply with the mandates/requirements. 

How fast some bellow and whine out their "freedoms."  The only "freedom" is their freedom of choice.   All choices come with consequences;  so if one chooses to NOT vaccinate and has no valid ID card, then they are choosing not to go into said businesses that require a valid vaccination ID.   Simple except for those who have no conscience.

These overall years have not been years of kindness to one another.  Not sure what they are, but it is greatly disappointing on so many levels, COVID and otherwise.  Guess I must be aging faster than I thought. Still haven't yelled, "Get Off My Lawn! " as yet, but can that be far away?  Sigh.

Then there is Florida . . . . the governor . . . . minimizing and refusing mandates . . . . . it is only because it is hot and people are inside where there is AC, seems to be the excuse . . . while people are dying and hospitals are filled to overload with no ICU beds left.   I cannot fathom it.  Just cannot.

Thank you to one and all who care and care enough for others as well as for yourselves to vaccinate and to comply with masking and what must be done,  you are doing good in a very important and meaningful way.

J.

Ed1937

It's all about choice. They should have a choice to refuse wearing masks, even though refusing them could cause others to die. Would those same people think someone should have the right to drive drunk, even though they might cause others to die? I think not. Oh, I forgot wearing a mask will cause your lungs to collapse within a few years, or you will become magnetized if vaccinated.

M1

As I just posted on another thread: new term for the delta variant is the Darwin variant. Funny, not funny. Terrifying in fact.